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In NY-23, a potentially troubling preview for the GOP

In NY-23, a potentially troubling preview for the GOP

Dante Chinni



The gubernatorial wins in Virginia (expected) and New Jersey (a bit of a
surprise) are reassuring. But New York¹s 23rd Congressional District, where
party infighting helped Democratic candidate Bill Owens, sits out there like
a big warning sign.

To recap that race: Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman choked off
funding and support for Republican Dede Scozzafava, who eventually left the
race. Ms. Scozzafava then endorsed Mr. Owens, and he won by about 5,000
votes ­ as Scozzafava captured about 6,000 protest votes.

As much as Republicans wanted to win the seat, some of them also reasoned
that if Owens won the race, there would be widespread recognition that
intraparty squabbling was at fault. So far, that doesn¹t appear to have
happened.

High-profile members of the more conservative wing of the GOP ­ former
presidential candidate Mike Huckabee and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint ­
have already announced that they will support conservative challengers to
Republican front-runners in US Senate races in Florida and California. That
could present trouble for the party in those places.

What happened in NY-23?

As we noted in Monday¹s post, New York¹s 23rd district held some peril for
the GOP. It went for Barack Obama in 2008. In Patchwork Nation¹s eyes, it is
largely made up of small-town ³Service Worker Center² counties. These tend
to lean Republican, but they are more exposed to economic problems than some
other places and are thus less tethered to political ideology.

When the results for the district were tallied, Owens¹ margin of victory
mostly came from three counties ­ Clinton, Franklin, and St. Lawrence. Owens
would have won all those counties even without the Scozzafava protest vote.

What do they have in common? They all are thinly populated, and they have
some of the area¹s higher unemployment rates ­ between roughly 8 and 10
percent. St. Lawrence in particular is dotted with small colleges. And they
went heavily for Mr. Obama in 2008 ­ between 57 and 61 percent of their
votes.

Owens didn¹t get quite those numbers, but voters in these counties still
seem willing to give the Democratic Party more time in control in
Washington.

Looking ahead to 2010

So what does all that mean for a potentially divided GOP in those Florida
and California Senate races? It isn¹t good.

The community types heavily represented in Florida and California could
present real problems for Republicans if conservatives split the vote or
force the eventual nominee to lean further right.

The east coast of Florida has densely populated ³Monied ¹Burbs² and
Latino-heavy ³Immigration Nation² counties. Both of those community types
went for Obama in 2008. Tampa, as well as north of Tampa, contains a lot of
diversifying ³Boom Town² counties. Those places tend to lean Republican, but
they also tend to be more moderate and could be put off by a divisive fight.

In California, the terrain is much tougher. The biggest chunks of the
state¹s population live in the big-city ³Industrial Metropolis² and
³Monied
¹Burb² counties. Those places went heavily for Obama in 2008. The GOP might
have a chance at winning those counties if it has a very moderate candidate
and the economy is poor. Even in that scenario, the fight would be
difficult. But a conservative Republican nominee would probably make it all
but impossible.

The point of the community types in Patchwork Nation is to show that
different types of places are motivated by different issues and ideas.
Political views that work well in, say, Nixa, Mo. ­ our socially
conservative ³Evangelical Epicenter² ­ are very different from those that
sell in Eagle, Colo., our ³Boom Town.² We¹ve chronicled such differences
for
almost two years now.

Then again, for many Republicans, the fight is over the party¹s soul, not
over winning seats in Congress. And applying more of a one-size-fits-all
approach may help clarify a party¹s identity.

But it will be a tough sell in the big ³county² of America, with more than
300 million people ­ and with all 12 community types.

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