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All politics was local (except in the NY 23rd district)

http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/04/silver.election.analysis.local/index.html?eref=rss_p
olitics

November 4, 2009

By Nate Silver, Special to CNN

(CNN) --

"All politics is local."

That four-word statement, originally uttered by former Democratic
House Speaker Tip O'Neill, is one of the favorite clichés of political
pundits everywhere.

But it's seldom respected when it matters most.

Consider, for instance, the special election in New York's 23rd
Congressional District, which conservative Democrat Bill Owens won in
spite of partisan and nonpartisan polling that had shown Conservative
Party candidate Doug Hoffman with a solid lead.

Almost overnight, Hoffman became a sort of folk hero among
conservative activists around the country, a decidedly
ordinary-looking man who seemed poised to take an extraordinary path
into Washington.

Some 95 percent of his fundraising came from outside the district.

Hoffman, indeed, had some initial success.

The original Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the
race after polling showed her trailing both Hoffman and Owens.

But when push came to shove, Hoffman lost.

Why?

Because those activists -- however well-meaning they might have been
-- misunderstood the district.

The 23rd is a Republican district, but it is not a particularly
conservative one, having split its vote between Barack Obama and the
moderate Republican John McHugh last November.

If Nancy Pelosi is regarded suspiciously in the 23rd, so are Sarah
Palin and Fred Thompson, who cut commercials and robocalls on behalf
of Hoffman.

What the voters there wanted was a candidate who understood them.

Owens -- superior to Hoffman in his command of local issues --
provided the best approximation.

Alternatively, consider the outcome in New Jersey, where Republican
Chris Christie knocked off incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine.

This election is being touted as a referendum on Obama, who took a
risk -- a bad one, indeed -- by campaigning on behalf of Corzine.

But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems:

Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57
percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling.

It was Corzine they didn't like;

27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found
someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for.

Corzine, for his part, ran a polarizing campaign;

every time Christie's name appeared in one of his commercials, it came
with a scarlet (R) -- for Republican -- attached.

Republicans are not popular in New Jersey, but local issues drove the
race.

Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue --
health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for
him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and
corruption).

..........................................................................................
..........................

State-level politics, indeed, routinely differ from national ones.

That's why you have Democratic governors in red states such as
Oklahoma and Wyoming, but Republican ones in blue states such as
Vermont and Hawaii.

..........................................................................................
...................

But usually the party that applies a one-size-fits-all approach to
local races is the losing one.

___________________________________________________________

Poor FatAss Junkie Limbaugh loses again.

Harry

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