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Could Obama still lose the nomination? Yes He Can

August 07, 2008
Could Obama still lose the nomination?

By Denis Keohane

Will Hillary outsmart Obama and take the nomination at the last minute?

Many of us familiar with Hillary Clinton's approach to achieving her goals
refused to believe that she ever gave up all hope of winning the nomination
and the presidency. Her words and actions on the subject of the convention
itself always left the door open for a return, should Obama falter or suffer
some calamity.

Her artful evasions were enough to lull journalists and (more importantly)
Obama and his supporters into the presumption of inevitability. No further
rumblings of a mass protest in Denver should the first black candidate be
denied his rightful due were heard. After all, he received enough publicly
expressed support from super delegates to put him over the top. And he won
the popular vote in the primaries, we were assured, lending legitimacy to
the super delegates who voiced their support.

Everyone presumed the presumptive nominee was a lock.

Now there are a few signs that Hillary may be making her move.

- Blogger Patterico alludes to the Hillary Clinton campaign burning up the
phone lines to the super delegates.

- Bill Clinton told ABC News, "I am not a racist" and contended the race
card was played against him. Even when prompted in the same interview to
state that Obama was ready for the Presidency, he did not deliver.

- Hillary's PUMA ( short for "Party Unity My Ass.") supporters in Denver
and nationally plan a rally at a Denver park during the convention.

- ABC news reported yesterday that Hillary Clinton does not rule out
putting her name in nomination, contradicting earlier press reports.

Many people, including no doubt a goodly number of nervous Democrat super
delegates, are asking themselves the David Brooks' question about Obama's
standing in the polls: "Where's the landslide  ?" After evaluating him for
several months, voters in the middle still aren't ready to embrace him.

National polls show not only a tightening of the Obama-McCain race to a
statistical dead heat but momentum toward a McCain lead, something
inconceivable only weeks ago. The specter of an Obama collapse has to haunt
more than a few super delegates.

Buyer's remorse seemed evident and growing among many Democrats toward the
end of their primary season when Obama lost again and again to Clinton, even
as the delegate math was by then stacked in his favour. That remorse was put
on hold (but apparently not resolved) by Obama's seeming to secure the
nomination and the subsequent popular boost he enjoyed at first. But lately
the candidate with a difference has had a hard time living up to his promise
to be a new kind of politician.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama has 1766.5 pledged delegates, 352
short of the 2118 needed to secure the nomination. He also has 463 super
delegates, which puts him over the top -- if they hold. If a combination of
Clinton campaigning and nervousness can cause a hundred and twenty or so
super delegates to sit out the first ballot, Obama does not get the
nomination on the first ballot and perhaps not at all. After that first vote
a great many pledged delegates and all the super delegates are free to vote
as they choose.

How much pressure could there then be for the forty-seven year old Obama to
take the VP spot under Hillary, with the understanding that he would as such
be the next Democrat in line for the top nomination whether Hillary won or
lost, served one, two or no terms?

It looks like Obama's belief in his inevitability may have led him into a
blunder, making it easier for Hillary supporters to prevent a nomination on
the first ballot. After that point, anything goes, as all super delegates
and many pledged delegates are free to vote their preferences.

After accepting the party's decision last June to seat the delegates from
Michigan and Florida but with half votes, only days ago Obama said he wanted
the delegates to have full votes

Obviously, he said this believing he has won the nomination and that
pandering to voters in critical general election states is of more
importance.

If the party goes along with Obama's request, it reduces the number of super
delegates who would need to sit out the first ballot for Obama to be denied
the nomination, opening the way for Clinton! Ouch!

This is proof that the man should not be negotiating with Ahmadinejad. If he
cannot think strategically and recognize his vulnerability to a last minute
ambush at the convention, he would be eaten alive in big league world
affairs.

Worst of all, in his letter to the Credentials Committee arguing in favour
of full votes for the two delegations, he writes:

Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and
colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our
country in a new direction.

These words tacitly argue for acceptance of the popular vote results in
those states. Obama cannot see one step ahead, for adding them to the vote
count would give the Democratic primary season popular vote majority to
Hillary.

There are about three weeks to the delegate voting. Things can still happen
or even, as sometimes suspected with the Clintons, be made to happen.

Page Printed from:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/08/could_obama_lose_the_nominatio_1.html
at August 07, 2008 - 12:45:17 PM EDT

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